Sunday, May 24, 2020

In JAMA, So the Whole day was not wasted.



I did a bit of old style medical review.


May 24, 2020
But Is It Useful?

Gary Hurd, Ph.D. | Retired; UC Irvine, Medical College of Georgia (+ industrial, and private)
Both USC [1] and Stanford [2] have recently released studies of a commercially promoted method to test for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 IgM and IgG antibodies in blood. They applied their results to estimates of the larger population covid-19 prevalence.

These studies must address three questions; it is accurate, is it representative, and is it useful?

Is It Accurate?

The same rapid antibody test is used in both studies. It is a variant distributed by Premier Biotech, but made by Hangzhou Biotest Biotech of China. It was imported and widely distributed under multiple marketing names, and companies. The US FDA has not approved this method, and the manufacturer has withdrawn it. [3]

Premier Biotech primarily markets drug testing kits used in sports, and some industrial/commercial drug testing situations. USC group received funding from The Foundation for Clean Competition, The Partnership for Clean Competition [4]. Both are closely associated with Premier Biotech [5].

A preprint provides an additional unrefereed critical review entitled “Test performance evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 serological assays [6]"

Is it Representative?

A major objection to the Stanford version of this study was that they had drawn a sample not representative of the population they claimed to model. The USC version tried to repair this by using a commercial marketing firm to generate their sample. However well intended, the sample design was not followed. The samples in both studies were grossly biased toward upper-middle class middle-aged white women. These studies failed to be representative and cannot be generalized.

It is Useful?

A biologically accurate immunological test for our body’s reaction to SARS-CoV-2 is needed. But reported data from the USC study questions if the tested method is any better than self reported symptoms. Specifically two reported facts by USC call this into question.

First, 28.6% of the total sample report prior symptoms. This returns to the “representative” question.
Second, of the volunteers 72% of total positives had also reported prior symptoms.

Urging people who experience symptoms to get a direct swab test will be far cheaper and more effective than the serological test procedures used here.

REFERENCES

[1] Sood N, Simon P, Ebner P, et al. Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2–Specific Antibodies Among Adults in Los Angeles County, California, on April 10-11, 2020. JAMA. Published online May 18, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.8279

[2] “COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California”
Eran Bendavid, Bianca Mulaney, Neeraj Sood, Soleil Shah, Emilia Ling, Rebecca Bromley-Dulfano, Cara Lai, Zoe Weissberg, Rodrigo Saavedra-Walker, James Tedrow, Dona Tversky, Andrew Bogan, Thomas Kupiec, Daniel Eichner, Ribhav Gupta, John Ioannidis, Jay Bhattacharya
medRxiv 2020.04.14.20062463; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463

[3] USFDA https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/emergency-situations-medical-devices/faqs-testing-sars-cov-2#5eca06b54859c

[4] The Partnership for Clean Competition, “… funds 80% of the worlds anti-doping research and development. Apply for a grant today!”

[5] "With Sports On Hold, A U.S. Anti-Doping Organization Switches Gears To COVID-19 Research" Karen Price | April 09, 2020 | Team USA. org
https://www.teamusa.org/News/2020/April/09/With-Sports-On-Hold-A-US-Anti-Doping-Organization-Switches-Gears-To-COVID-19-Research

[6] Jeffrey D. Whitman, et al, “Test performance evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 serological assays” May 17, 2020. medRxiv https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.25.20074856v2
CONFLICT OF INTEREST: None Reported

Wednesday, April 01, 2020

Trump is killing us


Corona-19 now (06/30/2020);

6-30, New Confirmed (symptomatic) Cases on a 7 Day Average





LA Times 03/31/2020 “Tuesday morning, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) took to the right wing airwaves of Hugh Hewitt’s radio show to unveil a theory of his own on why America was so unprepared for a looming pandemic: The federal government was too distracted by the impeachment process to work on anything else.

“It came up while we were tied down in the impeachment trial. And I think it diverted the attention of the government because everything every day was all about impeachment,” McConnell claimed in the interview.”

Trump golf schedule December 2019 - February 2020, and important events.
Impeachment Wednesday, December 18 House votes to impeach
Campaign Rally Wednesday, December 18, 2019               Battle Creek       MI
Golf       12/21/2019         Trump Intl, West Palm Beach, FL
Golf       12/22/2019         Trump Intl, West Palm Beach, FL, Lunch with Rush Limbaugh and Jim Herman
Golf     12/23/2019 thru 12/31/2019  Trump Intl, West Palm Beach, FL
Cov-19 December 31, 2019, China alerted WHO about an unknown viral pneumonia
Golf     01/01/2020 and 01/02/2020   Trump Intl, West Palm Beach, FL
Campaign Rally Friday, January 3, 2020   Miami   FL
Golf        01/04/2020 and 05   Trump Intl, West Palm Beach, FL
Cov-19  01/05/2020 WHO reported a "pneumonia of unknown cause" in Wuhan, China.
Cov-19  January 7, Chinese Government announced they had identified a new Corona virus
Cov-19 Jan. 9  The WHO released a press statement on the 01/07 Chinese report.
Campaign Rally Thursday, January 9, 2020             Toledo OH
Cov-19  January 13, 16, coronavirus-19 cases from Thailand and Japan
Campaign Rally Tuesday, January 14, 2020            Milwaukee         WI
Cov-19  January 17, a second death in China, 3 US airport screen Wuhan travelers
Golf     01/18/2020 and 19th   Trump Intl, West Palm Beach, FL
Cov-19  January 22, 2020: Trump, "We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine."
Cov-19  January 23, WHO makes a public announcement that the new virus is not yet a pandemic.
Trump 01/24/2020 In a tweet, Trump praised China for its efforts to prevent the spread of the virus. "China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!"
Campaign Rally Tuesday, January 28, 2020            Wildwood           NJ
Cov-19  January 30, WHO declared a "global health emergency"
Cov-19  January 30, 2020: WHO announced that the outbreak had become a "public health emergency of international concern over the global outbreak of novel coronavirus."
Campaign Rally Thursday, January 30, 2020 Des Moines IA Trump, "We think we have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment."
Cov-19  January 31 “Suspension of Entry as Immigrants and Nonimmigrants of Persons who Pose a Risk of Transmitting 2019 Novel Coronavirus”
Golf     02/01/2020 and 02     Trump Intl, West Palm Beach, FL
State of the Union Address, Feb. 4, “Protecting Americans’ health also means fighting infectious diseases. We are coordinating with the Chinese government and working closely together on the coronavirus outbreak in China. My administration will take all necessary steps to safeguard our citizens from this threat.”
Trump Feb. 2 In an interview with Sean Hannity, Trump said, "We pretty much shut it down coming in from China."
Impeachment Wednesday, February 5, 2020 Senate votes not to remove Trump from office.
Cov-19 Wednesday, February 5, 2020 Flights evacuating US citizens have returned from Wuhan.
February 10, 2020: Trump, "Typically, that will go away in April. We’re in great shape though. We have 12 cases — 11 cases, and many of them are in good shape now "
Campaign Rally Monday, February 10, 2020          Manchester       NH
Golf       02/15/2020         Trump Intl, West Palm Beach, FL
Campaign Rally Wednesday, February 19, 2020 Phoenix               AZ
Campaign Rally Thursday, February 20, 2020        Colorado Springs              CO
Campaign Rally Friday, February 21, 2020              Las Vegas            NV
February 27, 2020: Trump, "It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear."
February 28: Trump, " the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus… this is their new hoax "
Campaign Rally Friday, February 28, 2020              North Charleston             SC
February 29: Trump, "Everything is really under control"

March, Stock Market crashed;

Campaign Rally Monday, March 2, 2020 Charlotte             NC
March 6: Trump, "This came unexpectedly, it came out of China, we closed it down, we stopped it, it was a very early shut down"
Golf       03/07/2020         Trump Intl, West Palm Beach, FL. Quarantined cruise ship passengers forced to say on-board
Golf       03/08/2020         Trump Intl, West Palm Beach, FL. Hosts Washington Nationals
March 10: Trump, "And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away”
Cov-19 03/20/2020: 22,043 cases 278 fatalities.
Cov-19 03/23/2020: 41,708 cases 573 deaths
Cov-19 03/25/2020: 69,194 cases 1,050 deaths
Cov-19 03/28/2020: 132,637 cases 2,351 deaths
Mar. 31: Donald Trump, “I don't think I would have done any better had I not been impeached.”
Cov-19 04/01/2020: 203,608 cases 4,476 deaths


Three months. 21 days of Golfing. 12 Campaign Rallies. Mar. 31: Donald Trump, “I don't think I would have done any better had I not been impeached.” April 1st, 2020: 4,476 American Deaths.
8,098 American Deaths 04/04/2020

04/07/2020: 398,785 coronavirus-19 cases in the USA, 12,893 deaths

04/14/2020, 592,743 confirmed US cases, 24,485 deaths.

05/04/2020, 1,178,906 confirmed cases,  68,689 deaths.

13 May, 2020 10:30 AM,  1,375,949 US confirmed cases,  83,150  deaths,
14 May, 2020 4:30 PM,  1,416,528 US confirmed cases,  85,813 dead.

Trump: May 20, Reporter, "What would have done differently facing this crisis?" Trump, "Nothing." "If you look at deaths, we are at the lowest level along with Germany. And that's a great honor."

Trump is a murderous madman;

Cov-19 05/20/2020 1,552,000 US cases, 93,863 deaths. (Germany cases 179,000, deaths 8,277).

US population= 329,672,928 Cov-19 Deaths=  94,276 or 0.03%
Germany population= 83,783,942, Cov-19 Deaths=  8,195 or 0.01%.

22 May, 2020 2:30 PM,  1,596,633 US confirmed cases,  95,847 dead.

Trump: 23 May, 2020 POS made his 265th trip to one of his golf clubs during his presidency.
23 May, 2020 6:30 PM,  1,622,447 US confirmed cases,  97,076 dead.

30 June, 2020 2,629,372 confirmed active cases, 127,322 dead.